Delphi technique for elicitation of experts’ judgmentsMethodology courses and philosophy of science


Course information

ECTS: 1.5
Number of session: 2
Hours per session: 3
Entry level: Intermediate

Course fee:

  • free for PhD candidates of the Graduate School
  • € 220,- for non-members
  • consult our enrolment policy for more information

Contact:

Telephone: +31 10 4082607


Session 1
December 4  (Monday) 2017
13:30 - 16:30
Mandeville building (directions) T3-05

Session 2
December 11  (Monday) 2017
13:30 - 16:30
Mandeville building (directions) T3-14



Introduction

The course on Delphi Technique is part of a broader curriculum on Interviewing. The first session of that curriculum should be attended by all participants of the Delphi Technique course. If you are unfamiliar with multiple criteria analysis (MCA), you should follow at least the first session of the MCA course before attending the Delphi course. 

This course introduces the Delphi technique on eliciting experts’ judgments. This approach has been widely applied and can be used for forecasting and policy making on a large variety of fields, such as economic forecasting, technological development, education, health, business forecasting and energy and environmental policy.

The Delphi technique in this course will be illustrated by an example on environmental policy-making. The Delphi technique has been extensively used in the context of a multiple criteria analysis (MCA) process, for the assessment of different alternatives based on experts’ judgments.


Working method

The course consists of a mix of lectures, and an in-class group workshop using an Excel-based Delphi. There will be two daily (afternoon) sessions of three hours each. The first session consists of one introductory lecture of 1.5 hours and the introduction of the simulation workshop (1.5 hours). The second session will be entirely dedicated to the guided group workshop (3 hours).

During this course, we will discuss the main elements, characteristics, steps, strengths and weakness of the Delphi technique. Different case studies will provide insights about the applicability and usefulness of the Delphi approach, particularly in eliciting experts’ judgments for forecasting and policy-making purposes.

Participants will have the opportunity to apply and understand this method through a group exercise. As Delphi has been applied in conjunction with MCA, the group exercise will be integrated with the MCA course group workshop.


Learning objectives

  • Understand the main elements, characteristics and steps of Delphi technique
  • Apply a Delphi technique for the elicitation of experts’ judgments
  • Incorporate application of Delphi technique in Multiple Criteria Analysis process
  • Simulate a Delphi experts’ judgments elicitation process
  • Use a Delphi Excel-based tool

How to prepare

  • There are no preparatory assignments for this course.
  • You will need to bring a laptop for which you have the necessary rights to install software.
  • In order to actively participate, you are required to read some literature in advance (will be provided).

Session descriptions

Session 1
Introduction to Delphi technique

Session 2
Group workshop


About the instructor

Stelios Grafakos holds a PhD from Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) on integrated sustainability assessment and multiple criteria decision-making of low carbon energy technologies. He currently works as a senior researcher and scientific advisor in the field of urban sustainability and climate change mitigation and adaptation.